Hybrid effort
- Trio takes on Toyota GM, Chrysler and BMW have gotten together to save money
and combine gaselectric knowledge General Motors is just getting
into the burgeoning hybrid vehicle market and Chrysler won't be there until 2008,
so both badly lag industry leader Toyota. But GM and Chrysler, along with German luxury brand
BMW, have something Toyota doesn't: a three-way alliance that the partners say
will save money and speed development of hybrid systems that work on a variety
of vehicles, from large sport-utility vehicles to sleek luxury sedans. Whether
three cooks are better than one remains to be seen, but such collaboration may
be the only way even major auto manufacturers can compete with industry juggernaut
Toyota in hybrids. GM and its partners will invest more than $1 billion
in their collaborative effort with no guarantee of a return. Toyota reportedly
spent more than that during the 1990s to develop its first hybrid model, so it
takes big bucks to compete in this arena. To catch Toyota, GM and its partners
are adopting common specifications for a hybrid system built around a GM automatic
transmission. They will use a single factory to build hybrid systems, a GM plant
in Baltimore, achieving economies of scale none could realize on its own. The
three-way alliance on gas/electric hybrids is a sign of the times as automakers
search for partners as a way to save money globally on purchasing, product development
and new technology. GM, which recently teamed with Ford to develop a new
automatic transmission, is in preliminary talks with Renault and Nissan about
possible partnerships and joint ventures. Any deal among those three is
bound to get other manufacturers talking, and recent news reports have said Ford
would be interested in talking to Renault and Nissan if GM backs away. Phil
Gott, an analyst with industry forecaster Global Insight, calls the hybrid alliance
"an excellent strategy" that lets three rivals pool resources and tailor
the system to their own vehicles. "The transmission is versatile enough
that each manufacturer can talk about the benefits of it in their own vehicles,"
Gott said. "You could say it puts them ahead (of Toyota). You have
three manufacturers sharing the research and development and the manufacturing.
That means they should have a lower cost structure." But Toyota is
a rapidly moving target, and it could be years before the GM alliance matches
Toyota's current hybrid sales. Toyota has sold more than 370,000 hybrids
in the U.S. and globally expects to sell its 1 millionth hybrid next year. Honda
ranks second in U.S. sales with 141,000 and Ford is third with 33,000. Without
talking specifics, Toyota says it reduced costs of the hybrid technology by 50
percent in the 2004 Prius compared to the first-generation Prius, introduced in
Japan in 1997. Toyota expects another 50 percent cost reduction by early
next decade, when the company's goal is to sell 1 million hybrids annually around
the world, with 600,000 in the U.S. Analysts estimate a full hybrid system
like the one in the Prius currently adds $3,000 to $4,000 to a vehicle's cost,
but the amount is coming down with higher volume. "It's a numbers game,
and Toyota has the advantage in production," said Anthony Pratt, director
of global powertrain forecasting for J.D. Power and Associates. "They're
already a volume player. If anyone's making money on hybrids, Toyota's probably
doing it." Toyota also is selling its hybrid system to Nissan, which
will use it in the Altima sedan starting next year, and is working on a deal with
Fuji Heavy Industries, maker of Subaru cars. Power sees U.S. hybrid sales
growing to 900,000 in 2013, about 5 percent of the market, from 270,000 this year
or less than 2 percent of sales. The cost will need to come down to attract
buyers beyond early adopters who embrace hybrids as an environmental statement.
Power says the higher price is the main deterrent among consumers considering
hybrids. "Environmentalism is a wealthy person's hobby," Pratt
said. Power's research shows that the average new-vehicle buyer has annual
family income of $82,500, but hybrid buyers earn $113,400. GM, DaimlerChrysler
and BMW have not projected sales for the hybrid system they are developing or
talked price, but they have ambitious plans to spread their hybrid technology
across a range of models to maximize return. It will appear first in late
2007 on the Chevrolet Tahoe and GMC Yukon full-size SUVs. DaimlerChrysler will
offer it on its Dodge Durango SUV in early 2008 and later will adapt it to rear-wheel
drive luxury sedans in its Mercedes-Benz brand. "You will certainly
see further rollout of this technology. It has to work on other vehicle applications,"
said Andreas Truckenbrodt, director of DaimlerChrysler's hybrid program. "We're
talking about DaimlerChrysler here, not just Chrysler." BMW and GM
also plan to use it on rear-drive sedans, and GM and Chrysler are interested in
adapting it to their mass-market front-drive cars. GM says the hybrid versions
of the Tahoe and Yukon will get about 25 percent better fuel economy than conventional
models, which average 17 m.p.g. in EPA mileage tests. Toyota hybrids like
the Camry sedan and Highlander SUV get fuel economy improvements of more than
40 percent, but Pratt says those are car-based vehicles that don't do heavy-duty
chores. GM will have the first truck-based hybrid and says it will not reduce
towing or cargo hauling capabilities. "Each company is playing to its
strengths and is defending their most profitable segments," Pratt said. "Toyota
doesn't have that, so it's a competitive advantage." That advantage
may not last long because Toyota has said it intends to eventually offer hybrid
versions of all its models. As GM and its partners race to catch up to Toyota,
that leaves financially strapped Ford Motor Co. with a choice of continuing to
develop its own hybrid technology or find a dance partner. Ford was the
first U.S.-based manufacturer with a hybrid, offering it in 2004 on the Escape,
a car-based, compact SUV. Ford plans to introduce Ford Fusion and Mercury Milan
hybrid sedans in 2008 and four other hybrid vehicles by 2010. Troubled Ford,
however, is in the midst of a major overhaul that could make it a smaller company
with less money to spend on technologies like hybrids. That has sparked
speculation that Ford may eventually join the GM collaboration, especially since
it could use the hybrid technology in its large trucks. At a recent industry
conference, Tom Watson, Ford's hybrid manager, said "collaboration is always
a possibility," but he added that Ford sees developing its own system as
an "intellectual and competitive advantage." Pratt notes that
BMW and Mercedes-Benz are archenemies in the luxury field yet are on the same
team with GM on hybrids. Ford already has jointly developed an automatic transmission
with GM, so there is precedent. "Market forces can make for strange
bedfellows," Pratt said. |